分析：为什么香港加密交易所交易基金的初始规模和交易量之间存在巨大的不匹配？

By Tom Analysis, SoSoValue Researcher The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission officially announced the list of approved virtual asset spot ETFs, including the Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF under ChinaAMC (Hong Kong), Harvest International and Bosera Asset Management. These six spot ETF products opened for subscription from April 25th to 26th and were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 30th. Through the subscription, the six Hong Kong spot ETFs obtained a decent initial scale. According to SoSoValue data, the total net value of the three Bitcoin ETFs is 8 million, and the total net value of the three Ethereum ETFs is million, with a total net value of nearly 0 million; while the first-day total net value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF products, excluding Grayscale (GBTC), was only 0 million. However, in terms of first-day trading volume, Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency ETFs are far smaller than their counterparts in the United States. According to SoSoValue data, the first-day trading volume of the six Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs on April 30th was only .7 million, much lower than the .66 billion trading volume of US ETFs on the first day. We observed a significant mismatch between the initial scale and first-day trading volume of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs. How large can Hong Kong cryptocurrency spot ETFs grow, what impact can they have on the cryptocurrency market, and how should investors seize related investment opportunities? We will analyze this through the supply and demand relationship of Hong Kong ETFs. Figure 1: Overview of Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Spot ETF Data (Source: SoSoValue) Demand Side: Restriction on Mainland Chinese Investors May Limit Incremental Funds, Leading to Lower Trading Volume This time, Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs still have strict restrictions on investor qualifications, and mainland Chinese investors cannot participate in trading. Taking Futu Securities as an example, it requires the account holder to be a non-mainland Chinese & non-US resident to conduct transactions. It is currently not allowed for mainland funds to trade through the Southbound Stock Connect, and it is expected to be difficult to connect for a considerable period of time. In terms of fees, Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs are not advantageous compared to US ETFs and may not be attractive to institutions hoping to hold for the long term. According to SoSoValue data, among the 11 US Bitcoin spot ETFs, except for Grayscale and Hashdex, the largest ones like IBIT and CBOE have management fees of around 0.25%, while the comprehensive fees of the three Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong are relatively high, with ChinaAMC at 1.99%, Harvest at 1.00%, and the lowest Bosera at 0.85%. Even with a short-term reduction in management fees, there is still no fee advantage. With fee differences, for institutional investors optimistic about the cryptocurrency market and hoping to hold for the long term, the holding cost of US Bitcoin ETFs is lower. Looking ahead, the funds on the demand side may mainly come from two sources: 1) Hong Kong retail investors. For retail investors with Hong Kong ID cards, the threshold for purchasing Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs is lower. For example, to purchase US Bitcoin spot ETFs, one needs to have a Professional Investor (PI) qualification, and applying for a PI qualification requires proof of a million HKD investment portfolio or million HKD total assets. This time, Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs allow retail investors to trade, and the trading hours also better suit the Asian time zone, which is an important increment. 2) Traditional investors interested in Ethereum. Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF is the first global launch, so for investors who have substantial difficulties in holding assets but are optimistic about the future of Ethereum, they may bring incremental funds to Ethereum ETFs. Figure 2: Fee Situation of US Bitcoin Spot ETFs (Source: SoSoValue) Figure 3: Fee Situation of Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Spot ETFs (Source: SoSoValue) Supply Side: In-Kind Redemption/Subscription Increases ETF Share Supply, Boosting Initial Scale The biggest difference between Hong Kong cryptocurrency spot ETFs and US Bitcoin spot ETFs: in addition to cash redemption/subscription, in-kind redemption/subscription is added. This directly determines that in terms of ETF share level, Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs may have more supply. In-kind redemption/subscription refers to when investors subscribe (create) or redeem ETF shares, they can use cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin or Ethereum) for exchange instead of cash. When subscribing, investors provide a certain amount of cryptocurrency to the ETF in exchange for ETF shares; when redeeming, investors return ETF shares in exchange for the corresponding cryptocurrency. With reference to the comparison of the cryptocurrency purchase process in Figure 2, it can be seen that in-kind subscription brings two major differences compared to cash subscription: 1. Holders can directly subscribe with coins: For some large holders, such as miners, it is easy to convert their coins into ETF shares, and ETF shares can be sold for cash directly on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange or can be held outside, providing very flexible processing methods. 2. For the cryptocurrency market, in-kind subscription does not bring incremental funds into the market but only moves cryptocurrencies between different accounts. Cash subscription, on the other hand, will bring actual buy orders to on-chain cryptocurrency assets. Therefore, the subscribers of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETF shares include both traditional cash subscribers and large holders. Although each company has not yet disclosed the specific proportions of in-kind and cash subscription, according to OSL’s public communication, the proportion of the first batch of in-kind subscription ETF shares may exceed 50%, which also explains why the initial fundraising scale of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs can reach nearly 0 million, and the contribution of in-kind subscription cannot be ignored. However, on another level, these in-kind subscribed ETF shares may be converted into sell orders in subsequent secondary market transactions. Figure 4: Comparison of In-Kind and Cash Subscription Process for Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Spot ETFs Comprehensive Supply and Demand, Pay Attention to the Discount/Premium Rate to Seize Investment Opportunities From the comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand ends above, different from US Bitcoin spot ETFs, we can track the daily net inflow of funds of ETFs (Total Net Inflow, see https://sosovalue.xyz/assets/us-btc-spot for details) to intuitively judge the impact of incremental funds brought by Bitcoin ETFs on on-chain cryptocurrency asset prices. The supply and demand of Hong Kong cryptocurrency spot ETFs are more complex, and the data disclosed by various fund companies cannot clearly distinguish between in-kind and cash subscription/redemption quantities. In this context, we believe that the discount/premium rate in the open market (Hong Kong Stock Exchange trading) may be a better observation indicator. As we analyzed above, in-market trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reflects the strength of both supply and demand. If an ETF produces a discount, it indicates that sellers have stronger selling intentions, supply exceeds demand, and market makers have incentives to buy ETF shares at a discount on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and then redeem shares from the ETF issuer outside the market to make a profit, causing the overall net assets of the ETF to shrink, funds flow out, and have a negative impact on the overall cryptocurrency market. The entire process can be simply summarized as: ETF discount → stronger selling pressure → possible redemption → negative impact on the cryptocurrency market. Conversely, assuming the ETF is trading at a premium → stronger buying pressure → possible subscription → positive impact on the cryptocurrency market. According to SoSo Value data, as of the closing on April 30th, except for Harvest Bitcoin spot ETF (3439.HK) and Harvest Ethereum spot ETF (3179.HK), which had negative premiums of -0.18% and -0.19% respectively, other products had positive premiums, and during intraday trading, the highest positive premium reached 0.33%, with restrained selling and relatively strong buying pressure on the first day. Considering the influence of market makers on the first day of listing, this discount/premium data can be continuously observed. If a positive premium can be maintained continuously, it is expected to continue to attract investors to subscribe, especially holders of cryptocurrency, and the scale ofHong Kong cryptocurrency spot ETFs may exceed the estimated value of 0 million; whereas if it turns into a negative premium, attention should be paid to arbitrage trading to redeem ETF shares, with the ETF issuer selling cryptocurrencies, driving the cryptocurrency market downward. Figure 5: Supply and Demand Impact Mechanism of Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Spot ETFs (Source: SoSo Value) Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs also have significant value for investors: they have added a pathway for the conversion and circulation of cryptocurrency assets into tradable financial assets. Although the rapid approval of Hong Kong cryptocurrency spot ETFs may have a smaller short-term impact on the cryptocurrency market than US spot ETFs, in the medium and long term, the in-kind redemption/subscription mechanism of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs also provides a pathway for converting cryptocurrency assets into traditional financial assets. Through in-kind subscription, cryptocurrency can be converted into ETF shares, and because ETF shares have fair values and liquidity priced by traditional financial markets, holding cryptocurrency ETFs can be used as proof of assets in traditional financial markets, allowing various leverage operations, such as collateral lending and structured products. The pathway between cryptocurrency assets and traditional finance has been further opened up, and the value of cryptocurrency assets can be more fully reflected and realized. From a more macro and long-term perspective, the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong is an important development for the global cryptocurrency market. This policy will have a long-term impact on the financial landscape of the Chinese-speaking region and is also an important step for the further legalization of cryptocurrency in the global financial system. 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